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FUEL COST CRISIS * USA - Wall Street's crude ways
How traders and hedge funds fuel runaway energy costs
New York,NY,USA -MarketWatch, by David Weidner -May 15, 2008: -- Two years ago, our president, a former Texas oil man, proclaimed that "America is addicted to oil."... These days, the problem is that even though the appetite of the addict hasn't changed, the price of a fix has doubled... A boom in speculation and trading by investment banks and hedge funds has put our energy markets on steroids. Contract volume in the futures markets has risen by a third in just the last year. Oil closed at a record high of $125.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday. That's double the price two years ago, a difference clearly caused by market manipulation... This isn't complicated finance. The way traders push up prices is surprisingly simple. They buy in European futures markets, which don't have the limits that U.S. markets do. That drives up U.S. prices where they may already have positions. It's a move to think about next time one of these exchange chiefs talks about all of the benefits of "market globalization". None of it would matter except that these markets are supposed to be driven by supply and demand. China and other rapidly growing countries may be using more, or will use more resources, but the reality is that demand and supply haven't changed enough to warrant the price of oil doubling in less than three years... Here's what has changed: the proliferation of energy trading desks on Wall Street and at hedge funds. There are more than 9,000 hedge funds with $1.5 trillion under management, according to the Federal Reserve. Hedge funds, which almost exclusively use short-term strategies, do nearly 55% of derivatives trading, the kind used in energy futures, according to a study last year by Greenwich Associates... During a three-year span ending in 2006, between $100 billion and $120 billion in new speculative money entered the energy markets, according to a congressional report. Investment in commodity index funds surged more than 500% to $80 billion during the same period... The hubris and insensitivity of energy trading is best personified by Goldman Sachs. A Goldman commodities analyst famously predicted in March 2005 that oil would reach $100 a barrel. At the time, a barrel was trading about $55. The prediction led to a lot of ridicule, but it also drove up prices in the short term, and ultimately came true... Now, Arjun Murti, the same analyst who made the earlier prediction, is back, promising $200 oil this year. Murti is again talking about demand, but again, world consumption doesn't suggest the price should double... Even if Goldman isn't profiting off its ability to influence the market, it is defending the role of speculation in the market. In a May 5 note on energy trading, Goldman analysts said speculation was actually solving the energy crisis... Unswayed by Goldman's treatise, Congress, the Federal Trade Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are all looking to rein in the trading. A House panel is investigating speculation and will hold hearings in May and June. A Senate bill sponsored by Michigan Sen. Carl Levin seeks to put limits on U.S. trades in overseas markets... Levin, who as a member of House subcommittee on investigations, is a veteran of the Enron Corp. fallout, recognizes that Enron-era laws don't take into account foreign markets and how they can be manipulated. He's proposing what amounts to trading limits... Tinkering with the free market, however, always is dangerous ground to tread. No one wants the government looking over his or her shoulder when making a trade... Times, though, have changed. The Federal Reserve is backing brokers and honoring the industry's commitments. Traders themselves have distorted the market's integrity... Restraint, either self-inflicted or imposed by the government is coming. Americans are jonesing for relief at the pump... Everyone knows how far an addict will go to get a fix...
* Gas prices may spur revision of mpg plan
Washington,DC,USA -The Detroit News, by David Shepardson -May 17, 2008: -- U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary Peters said Friday the final regulation increasing fuel efficiency standards could be tougher than the department's initial proposal... Last month, Peters unveiled the department's proposal to increase fuel efficiency of the nation's cars and trucks to 31.6 miles per gallon by 2015 -- a 4.5 percent annual increase, and faster than what Congress ordered in December when it called for the first rewrite of passenger car fuel efficiency standards since 1975. Peters noted the proposal assumed the price of gasoline at about $2.26 a gallon in 2015 rising to $2.51 by 2030. But the price of gasoline was already above that when the measure was passed in April... Prices have jumped 22 cents a gallon since the announcement to a national average of $3.72, according to the U.S. Department of Energy... The energy bill required the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to set the standards starting with the 2010 model year at the "maximum feasible" level. Higher gas prices make tougher standards more feasible...
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