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Nov 1, 2005

Lows - USA - Vehicle sales may hit historic lows

Automakers pay price of discounts

Detroit,Mich,USA -Detroit Free Prees, by SARAH A. WEBSTER -Nov 1, 2005: -- Auto dealers and industry experts expect that auto sales in October may dive to historic lows when they are reported later today -- making this the second month of payback for the employee-discount sales craze over the summer... Payback is the phenomenon when strong sales are followed by weak sales, largely because consumers who intended to buy a new product were pulled into the market earlier than they might have been otherwise. Payback tends to even out overall results, unless demand for a product is actually growing... That doesn't seem to be the case this year... Sales for General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. likely dropped more than 20% in October, compared to the same period a year ago, according to a survey of economists and analysts by Bloomberg News... John Casesa, an auto analyst for Merrill Lynch, estimates that vehicles sold at an annual rate of 15.2 million units. That is down from 16.9 million in October 2004 and would also be the weakest sales month since August 1998... Casesa expects sales will drop 15% for GM, 20% for Ford and 10% for Chrysler. Meanwhile, he expects mixed results for Asian automakers. While he sees slight gains for Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co., he expects Nissan Motor Co. to post a decline... Despite the lackluster month, Art Spinella, president of CNW Marketing Research of Bandon, Ore., thinks auto sales might not be as weak as some people expect.

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