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Feb 13, 2017

* Trucking Industry Insider: Trumping Australia

* ACT - The transport industry can only be optimistic about what 2017 could deliver

--- Mining appears to be showing slow signs of recovery, government contracts for large scale developments press forward, and commercial and residential construction continues to prosper on the back of low interest rates... Yep money's cheap right now, and all is looking rosy for a solid 2017 performance for the truck equipment suppliers... Then across the pond comes the inauguration of the man himself, the one who could simply screw the optimism of so many with his stubborn ways, the man who will use the power to his advantage - the man they call Trump. Donald Trump... So what does this mean for transport in Australia, and what would that mean for customers chasing new metal and rubber for the kilometres ahead? While it is still early to predict, I would expect to see positives and negatives for this great industry... The positives are that we should see the dollar climb closer to parity, that means great opportunities for importers of American gear as it should become more competitive against the European products and that should flow through to the end user... The negatives will grow, but at this stage expect the Trans Pacific Partnership to be a distant memory, even if good old Malcolm Turnbull gets nations outside of the USA on board (which I highly doubt) it won't deliver huge impacts on our industry unless American companies rely on cheaper labour options in regions like Mexico to build product - there would be a few component suppliers that may face this challenge...
 Canberra, ACT, Australia - Big Rigs - 13th Feb 2017

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Nov 8, 2016

THE FUTURE OF TRANSPÓRT * Australia

* ACT - Which role will road transport play in meeting the growing demand for transport services?


--- Albeit delayed, the Global Financial Crisis hit the Australian road freight community hard in 2009. The shockwaves of the economic slowdown have since reverberated throughout the industry and took many a transport business down in the fallout – with some saying they can still feel the impact today... Looking back, the magnitude of the crash is especially astounding against the backdrop of a 2003 forecast published by the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE), which predicted a doubling of road freight by 2020 and went on to become one of the most frequently quoted industry statistics of the decade... More than 12 years on – yet with the GFC still fresh in mind – the National Transport Commission (NTC) has now again dared a look into the future. The resulting Who Moves What Where report is painting a more differentiated picture of the industry... Split amongst road, rail and sea freight, operators across the board will become increasingly busy as GDP and domestic population continue grow, he explains. In fact, the economy is one of the two factors that the new NTC report identified as major contributors to the increase in Australian freight, with the other being growth in Asia, which the NTC says will intensify demand for Australian commodities such as iron ore, coal and LPG by between 100 and 160 per cent...
 (Image: The Future of Transport Australia’s freight task is expected to see double-digit growth over the next decade)   --   Canberra, ACT, Australia - Prime Mover - November 2016 issue

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Apr 26, 2016

* India TRUCK MARKET PROGNOSIS: Technology & Trucking:

* Delhi- How new innovations are adding up to the benefits of trucking aggregation

-- Whenever Indians think of trucks and the trucking business, their minds conjure up the image of a garishly painted, heavily embellished vehicle with a vest-clad, bearded trucker sitting in its cockpit singing loudly to the tune of his radio. The reason behind this image is pretty obvious – the long-haul logistics industry is still very much a brick-and-mortar industry. While the last-mile logistics sector has by and large adopted the benefits that technology brings in, the long-haul segment has resisted the change for years... A McKinsey report on the Indian logistics ecosystem expected it to grow at an average of 7-8 percent year on year, while the freight traffic is estimated to demonstrate a 2.5 fold growth till 2020. With their state-of-the-art tech-driven offerings, technology-driven trucking aggregators are well positioned to disrupt the market segment and tap into the massive business potential that is at present locked within the industry, which is currently estimated to be worth $220 billion. The end-game, in this case, is quite obvious – revolutionising the trucking business through tech-driven offerings and adding more value to all the stakeholders in the supply chain... 
New Delhi, India - Iam Wire, by Jayaram Raju - April 25, 2016

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May 9, 2013

CAR MARKETS PROGNOSIS * Europe

* UK - The changing nature of vehicle ownership 

London,EN,UK  -Fleet Europe, by Jonathan Green -3 May 2013: -- The way cars are bought and used will change radically in the future as a the new generation begins to shape the market... Professor Dale Harrow, head of the automotive design school at the Royal College of Art in London, believes that young people will not be interested in buying cars in the future and that automakers will need to innovate if they are to capture the younger generation’s attention... The statistics bear this out. Less than a third of 16-19 year olds are applying for their driving licence in the US now compared to almost 100 per cent in 1978. It is the computer screen and the smartphone rather than four wheels that interests youngsters today... The academics believe that automakers will need to keep motorists connected and in touch with their screens while they are travelling, and that this desire for connectivity will push the adoption of driverless vehicles...

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Feb 24, 2012

TRAILER MARKET * EU

* The West European trailer market finished 2011 up 27.2% over the level of 2010

Dublin,Ireland -Irish Trucker -23 February 2012: -- This means that there was a 40.7% increase over the very low demand level of 2009 at the bottom of the recession...  However, as a result, the trailer market has only recovered to the level of 2003, which itself was at the bottom of a mild downturn... What is more 2012 will not provide any growth – in fact there will be a small drop in the demand for new trailers – thanks to the continuing euro-zone debt crisis and the resultant fall in business confidence. The economic outlook for 2012 has been downgraded in recent months in every country of the region. Both GDP and business investment growth will fall below 1% in most countries... Looking further forward, there are grounds for optimism in 2013/14 ... In the meantime a backlog of replacement demand is building. Because the level of new trailer sales is still low, the trailer parc (fleet size) is both ageing and shrinking. Eventually it becomes uneconomic to keep running old equipment, which should lead to increased demand for new vehicles...

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Jan 12, 2012

TRUCK SALES PROGNOSIS * USA

* Weaker US economy won't affect Class 8 demand this year

Columbus,IND,USA -Truck News (CAN) -Jan 11, 2012: --  ACT Research says it expects the pace of US economic activity to operate at around a 2% rate as 2012 unfolds, according to the January issue of the ACT North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK... "A wide range of US economic data reported in the last few weeks have been stronger than consensus expectations. However, they are incidental to underlying trends, as the fundamental factors affecting economic growth remain largely unchanged," said Sam Kahan, ACT's chief economist. "We do believe that the heavy-duty truck market will continue to benefit from healthy trucker profits and rising used truck values."..  No adjustments were made to ACT's commercial vehicle forecasts this month...


* DTNA forecasts Class 8 sales of 232,000 for North America, primarily based on replacement demand

(Photo: 2006 Freightliner Century Class Midroof with a 2007 53' Wabash DuraPlate® HD)
Miami,FLA,USA -Truck News (CAN), by Lou Smyrlis -Jan 11, 2012: -- Despite the sluggish economic recovery, Daimler Trucks North America (DTNA) expects the North American Class 8 market to bounce back in 2012 with retail sales of 232,000 trucks. About 27,500 of those are expected to be sold in Canada... In comparison, retail sales for the North American Class 8 market came in around USA)
183,000 in 2011, with about 25,000 coming from Canada...  Mark Lampert, DTNA's senior vice president, sales and marketing,  figure that the North American truck fleet somewhere between 6.7 and 6.9 years old, on average. In Canada, records show that only about one fifth of heavy duty trucks are less than 5 years old...  He does see the average age starting to come down in 2012, however, as carriers large and small move to get rid of the older trucks in their fleets, which are likely starting to cause them maintenance-related issues...

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Nov 12, 2011

TRUCKS' MARKETS and PROGNOSIS * WORLDWIDE

* Europe and USA - S and P report says Europe's heavy truck market to slow in 2012

(Photo: Standad and Poor's headquarters in New York City)
New York City,NY,USA -Reuters -Nov 10, 2011: -- The strong recovery that European and North American truck makers have experienced since mid 2010 looks set to cool in 2012, says Standard and Poor's Rating Services today in the report "Slowdown Ahead For Truck Makers In Europe, In North America The Recovery Rolls On"...  This is because, while we anticipate market demand in Europe will slow next year, in North America it should continue expanding, buoyed not least by pent-up demand from trucking firms looking to renew their fleets. We also expect demand to continue increasing in emerging markets...  Other factors supporting our expectation of a market slowdown in Europe in 2012 rather than a sudden standstill include that the truck market is not overheated, as it was before the last downturn, and order inventories are manageable...  The report says a slowdown of demand in Europe would be aggravated by a possible lack of credit for truck purchases. Should weaker economic conditions or a tougher regulatory framework for the banks lead to more cautious lending in 2012, we see a risk that funding could dry up for smaller trucking firms. Furthermore, since demand for trucks is closely correlated with economic growth, a second recession (double dip) could cut truck demand below our base-case assumptions. Standard and Poor's economists currently put the risk of a double-dip in Europe in 2012 at about 40%, the report says...


* China In October 2011: Running Out Of Gas

(Photo: China Police on Bicycles)
Beijing,China -The Truth about Cars, by Bertel Schmitt -November 9, 2011: -- The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released its October sales, and they confirmed the rumors that they were nothing to write home about. Total automobile sales are down 1.07 percent compared to October 2010. Production rose less than 2 percent. Passenger vehicles still outpace the overall market, up 1.42 percent...  Commercial vehicles keep dragging the market down. In October, sales of commercial vehicles were 9.93 percent below the same month in 2010. Homegrown brands continue to lose market share at 29 percent...  In the first ten months of the year, slightly above 15 million vehicles were sold, indicating that the year should end at around 2010 levels...  In light of the underwhelming performance of the general market, the performance of GM China is astounding. October sales across all brands of GM China were up 10.4 percent. Usually, GM tracks the market...

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Nov 2, 2010

TRUCK MARKETS PROGNOSIS * Europe - Truckmakers could clear M&A highway

Industrial businesses suggest the sector is inching towards its overdue consolidation


London,UK -Thomson Reuters Breakingviews, by Alexander Smith & Chris Hughes/David Evans -Nov 2, 2010: -- The key is in the ignition for European truck M&A. But while the need for mergers is clear, the road to deals is littered with obstacles... The longer-term structural pressure to consolidate -- especially the threat from low-cost Asian manufacturers -- hasn't gone away, even if the operational results of European truckmakers have bounced back this year. But M&A efforts have so far foundered.  What could get the M&A convoy moving? Fiat's demerger is the obvious driver. Once completed, it would make a Daimler/Iveco tie-up the least difficult deal to pull off, since a friendly transaction could help smooth the deal's passage with unions and regulators. Europe's other truckmakers would have to respond, in turn putting U.S. players like Paccar, owner of the DAF marque, and Navistar under pressure. Europe, more usually associated with truck blockades, could end up clearing the M&A highway...(Photo from insurancechoice.co.uk: truck and small fleet)

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Sep 24, 2009

PROGNOSIS * Germany - Diesel: The Next Big Thing in America?

Frankfurt,Germany -GreenTechMedia (Cambridge,MA,USA), by Michael Kanellos -September 23, 2009: -- Clean diesels are selling like hotcakes in the U.S. and the numbers should increase, say execs at Audi and Volkswagen. Apparently, hybrids and electric cars aren't the only thing Americans are lining up for... Volkswagen and Audi both recently experienced a surge of sales for diesel cars and diesels will likely become a larger part of the overall market as gas prices climb, clean emissions regulations get imposed and electric cars continue to struggle to drive down the price off batteries, according to company execs during interviews at last week's International Auto Show in Frankfurt... Up to 30 percent of the models that come in both regular and diesel will likely be diesel in the future, said Stefan Jacoby, CEO of Volkswagen America. (TDI stands for turbocharged direct injections: these engines run on diesel)... Technical advances, though, buoy the argument. Many of the problems – particulate emissions, noise and smell – associated with diesel cars have been steadily ameliorated over the past several years... At the same time, mileage efficiency has increased. A diesel can get 30 percent or better mileage than an equivalent gas car...

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Jul 10, 2008

TRUCKING INDUSTRY'S PROGNOSIS * USA

* S&P sees trucking sector weakness through at least 2009 on overcapacity and soaring fuel costs

New York,NY,USA -Associated Press/CNN Money -July 09, 2008: -- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said Wednesday it expects overcapacity, poor pricing and soaring fuel costs to plague the trucking sector through at least next year... In addition to the industry-specific problems, weak consumer spending and a slumping housing market in the U.S. are compounding problems for truckers because they haul a large portion of consumer goods in the country, S&P said... S&P predicts consumer spending will rise this year at about half the rate it did in 2007... S&P expects these factors to result in weak earnings in the trucking sector through the end of the year. The agency expects capacity reductions to start bringing the sector into better balance next year, but said a turnaround is unlikely until late 2009... (Photo from The Trucker: The report, “An Uphill Climb For U.S. Trucking Companies,” notes that these weak economic conditions and escalating commodity prices in the U.S. have translated into depressed consumer spending levels and soft tonnage levels for truckers)

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May 23, 2008

OPTIMIST PROGNOSIS * USA - Truckload carriers looking for freight rebound

Tough times for truckload carriers may be coming to an end

NewYork,NY,USA -Fleet Owner, by Jim Mele -May 21, 2008: -- ... According to fleet executives addressing financial analysts at a transportation conference here yesterday... Although they differed on specifics, chief executives from some of the country’s largest carriers indicated that stronger freight activity in April and the beginning of May coupled with significant decreases in truckload capacity have laid the groundwork for rate recovery, if not now, then in the next few months... Fuel price pressure, however, will keep revenue-per-mile growth below 1.5% until the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of 2009, according to predictions from the fleet executives... The analyst transportation conference was held by Wolfe Research, a new company created by former Bear Stearns transportation group director Edward Wolfe. For the past 15 years, Wolfe had hosted a similar meeting for Bear Stearns... Despite the upbeat mood, none of the truckload carriers at the Wolfe conference predicted large rate increases in the near future. Echoing his fellow fleet executives, Jerry Moyes, chairman & CEO of Swift Transportation said, “We could use 10%, but we’ll probably get 3%.”...

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May 17, 2008

PROGNOSIS * USA - Long-term need for short-haul trucking

Jacksonville,FL,USA -Jacksonville Business Journal, by Tony Quesada -May 16, 2008: -- The need for drayage -- hauling shipping containers between modes of transportation or to their destinations -- is expected to increase as container terminals open in Jacksonville, presenting opportunities and challenges for the local trucking industry... The Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. terminal at Dames Point, set to open in January 2009, is projected to have capacity of about 800,000 20-foot-equivalent units (TEUs) of containerized cargo, which equates to roughly 400,000 shipping containers.... Hanjin Shipping Company Ltd. plans to develop a container terminal off Heckscher Drive by 2011 capable of handling 1 million TEUs a year... Port authority officials expect about 30 percent or more of those containers will need to be drayed to local rail yards, while others will go to area warehouses, cross-dock sites and container yards... While trucking companies look forward to new drayage business, it's not without concerns. Perhaps the main one -- also shared by drayage customers -- is whether the roads can handle the increased demand... "The big 'watch out' for us is traffic and road time," said Ike Sherlock, director of fleet operations for Grimes Trucking Co... It takes about 20 minutes to dray a container from Blount Island to the Westside rail yards, which is about the same distance as from Dames Point. Sherlock said that on a good day a drayage driver can shuttle five containers, which would be a very profitable day... The port authority has coordinated with the Florida Department of Transportation on improvements to the State Road 9A/Heckscher Drive interchange -- an $11.8 million project -- to facilitate a smoother flow of trucks to and from the Mitsui terminal... (Photo by Marcy Appelbaum - Dursum Medic, a truck driver with Hart Transportation, connects a refrigerated container to his truck)

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May 10, 2008

PROGNOSIS * USA - Truckers Hear Cautious Optimism About Business Climate

Truckload carriers are running the anchor leg of a brutal two year race

Rogers,ARK,USA -The Morning News, by Kim Souza -May 8, 2008: -- ... Acording to Donald Broughton, transportation analyst with Avondale Partners... The Wall Street analyst spoke to about 200 Arkansas trucking executives attending the Arkansas Trucking Association conference Thursday in Rogers... Broughton predicts the worst is about over in terms of weak freight demand that has helped to drag down profits among carriers of all sizes and classifications for six fiscal quarters... Fuel costs, Broughton said, are a demand problem, not a supply problem and relief is not expected any time soon. He told the truckers that energy costs were not a catalyst for weak freight demand. "The days of $40-per-barrel oil are history, because demand from developing countries is expected to increase and it will be a few years before those countries can develop needed fuel efficiencies," Broughton said... Broughton told the group that traditional truckload carriers that have continued to stay afloat because of management efficiencies could find more strength by the end of the year as failure rates among less-fortunate carriers are escalating... According to Broughton, less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers could see some excess capacity relief by consolidation among two of the sector's largest players before the end of the year. He predicts UPS will likely purchase a large LTL carrier and he predicted the possible failure of another large unionized LTL carrier... Broughton's long-term survival guide for traditional carriers includes:

Eliminating deadhead - running empty trucks - is crucial because no fuel surcharge can be assessed on those loads.
Partnering with a railroad for longer haul business, also known as intermodal.
Using brokerage operations to add flexibility.
Utilize technology for visibility and planning loads.
Steal shamelessly good ideas from the best competitors.

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Mar 6, 2008

TRUCKING INDUSTRY PROGNOSIS * Australia - Truckers swamped by crops

Australia's trucking industry is worried it may not have the capacity to move a bumper grain crop this year

Sydney,Australia -The Australian, by Simon Kearney -March 06, 2008: -- ... after rail freight company Pacific National pulled out of serving smaller NSW and Victorian towns... Australian Road Train Association chief executive Duncan Bremner said the rail pullout and the expectation of a big grain harvest following good rains in Queensland, NSW and Victoria had led to a "perfect storm" for the trucking industry... "We don't have enough trucks," Mr Bremner said. "With the harvest that is expected the industry is doing the sums and we can't get access to the vehicles. It's just going to be chaos."... The harvest begins in September in Queensland and moves slowly down the country to Victoria, whose grain harvest is in December... The 2008-09 grain harvest is expected to be significantly bigger than previous years of drought, as higher production and higher prices boost returns... Adding to the problems are recent changes to commonwealth truck registration charges... Mr Bremner said a B-Double truck configuration would now cost $14,000 to register, compared with $5000 for a semi-trailer, leading many in the industry to opt for a semi-trailer with less capacity... He said this could be one of a number of factors driving an increase in sales of heavy commercial vehicles this year, with drivers opting to purchase another truck rather than a two-trailer configuration...

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Feb 27, 2008

PROGNOSIS * USA - Many issues cloud economic forecast for SoCal ports

A variety of issues will reshape the destinies of the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach through 2008-09

San Francisco,CAL,USA -Logistics Management, by Patrick Burnson -25 Feb 2008: -- While there may be “a modest uptick” of 2.8 percent in cargo throughput at the nation’s two largest seaports, all indications suggest growth will be flat for the near term, said analysts for the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp. ... In its “Industry Outlook” released late last week, analysts said that a variety of issues will reshape the destinies of the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach through 2008-09... Factors include port container fees soon to be implemented at both gateways levied to help pay for new trucks and infrastructure projects. As reported in LM, a whole host of related legal challenges may also be in the offing... The report noted that the International Longshore and Warehouse Union’s coast-wide contract expires in June, giving some shippers reason to explore other sourcing options... The report had on other cautionary note: "Environmental problems will continue to bedevil the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and they are a growing concern at Oakland and San Diego"...

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Jan 22, 2008

PROGNOSIS * USA - Road to US recovery likely long

The worst will likely be over by the time 2008 is done, but there's still no quick fix for the American economy and freight volumes

Las Vegas,NV,USA -Today's Trucking (Toronto,ONT,CAN) -22 Jan 2008: -- ... a group of economic forecasters told a theatre full of truck manufacturing execs yesterday... Speaking at the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association's (HDMA) Heavy Duty Dialogue conference here in Las Vegas, Martin Regalia, chief economist for the US Chamber of Commerce predicted a 45 percent chance the U.S. economy doesn't get out of 2008 without being hit by the dreaded R word -- recession. The good news, though, is that there's a better than 50 percent the eye of the storm could be avoided... "The economy is not hitting on all cylinders and there are significant weak spots," Regalia said, pointing out housing and lending sectors as two of the more obviously troubled industries... The first truck sales predictions for 2008 were also thrown around at Heavy Duty Dialogue... Generally, Brady, Kenny Vieth, partner with A.C.T Research, and ML Associates President Martin Labbe, suggested between 230,000 to 250,000 North American class 8 factory sales in 2008 and up to 270,000 in 2009. The animated Stu MacKay of MacKay & Co. was more pessimistic, suggesting a "base core" demand of only 200,000 U.S. sales this year... "The market will be based on not much more than replacement demand," he said... All the panelists acknowledged that an array of "wildcards" -- the price of oil and the scale of another pre-buy in advance of the 2010 emission regulations, for example -- could quickly change those projections... Looking beyond this decade, Regalia warned of the possibility of more volatility even if the economy starts to recover in the short-term. He noted that about $3 trillion in tax cuts expire between 2012 and 2014, and if something's not done to preserve them, then "that's $3 trillion in tax increases"... That kind of added cost on taxpayers -- plus inflation and the burden to fix U.S. health care and a crumbling highway infrastructure -- could seriously corrode consumers' ability to buy goods, and therefore, trucking companies' ability to ship them, Regalia says...

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Jan 14, 2008

PROGNOSIS * UK - A turbulent year for the commercial vehicle market

London,UK -Commercial Motor/Road Transport, by Andy Salter -14 January 2008: -- On the face of it total truck sales of nearly 50,000 (representing a decline of only 8% on the heady heights of 2006) is nothing to get too alarmed about. The accelerated demand during 2006 caused by digital tachos and Euro-4 was always going to make year-on-year comparisons pretty meaningless. Annual registrations of 50,747 vehicles above 3.5-tonnes GVW, while the lowest figure for 10 years, is perfectly respectable figure. In any case sales improved as the year progressed, so there's no obvious sign of a downturn in the short to medium term...

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