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Mar 30, 2017

RATES WILL RAISE * USA: Report

* Indiana- Capacity is tight, but rates will rise: FTR

--- Analysts at FTR are reporting a tighter freight capacity for shippers this year, but believe that “regulatory drag” will likely be slowed under the Trump Administration and a Republican-controlled US Congress... Even with that, shipping costs are expected to increase against a backdrop of 2.5% economic growth this year, it says... “The economy is beginning to show signs of some acceleration. Manufacturing is attempting to shrug off its inventory woes, and business confidence has certainly improved, although it hasn't translated into direct investment yet,” says Jonathan Starks, Chief Operating Officer of FTR. “If sustained, this would raise the outlook for freight demand this year and into next year. While that would cause capacity to tighten, the tailwind is that the regulatory environment isn't expected to have as dramatic an impact as initially thought. Costs, especially rates, are still expected to see increases this year after a relatively weak rate environment in 2016" ... 
Bloomington, IND, USA - Today's Trucking - Mar 28, 2017

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Jul 14, 2012

TRUCKING PROGNOSIS * USA

* USA - Market Share, Revenue Gain Forecast for Trucking

Arlington,VA,USA -The Journal of Commerce Online, by William B. Cassidy -Jul 9, 2012: -- ATA predicts trucking will haul 70 percent of U.S. freight by 2023... Total U.S. freight tonnage will grow 21 percent by 2023, as freight revenue rises 59 percent, the American Trucking Associations predicts in a new freight forecast... The weak economic recovery won’t hinder trucking in the long-term, the forecast claims. Many observers believe trucking stands to gain as inventories and supply chains get leaner... Trucking share of freight tonnage will increase more than 2 percentage points to 69.6 percent by 2023, according to ATA’s Freight Transportation Forecast... The forecast, prepared by ATA, IHS Global Insight and Martin Labbe Associates, predicts trucking’s share of total freight revenue will rise to 81.7 percent... Trucking handles 67 percent of freight tonnage and accounts for 81 percent of freight revenue in the U.S.,  ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello, said in the annual forecast, released Monday...

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Mar 13, 2012

PROGNOSIS * USA

* Massachusetts - Truck-demand cycle peak moving to 2014

Cambridge,MA,USA -Penton Media/Fleet Owner -Mar. 12, 2012: -- ACT Research Co. has announced it is shifting its long-term forecast for the commercial vehicle industry. “The cycle peak in 2013 has been adjusted downward,” according to the analysis and forecasting firm, “with stronger demand now stretching through 2014. We believe that the economy should still be growing and generating freight in 2014,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “There is a wide gap between new and used truck prices in a credit-constrained market. This suggests that the cyclical peak we would expect to see in 2013 is likely to be muted... Assuming the economy continues to expand,” he added, “the commercial vehicle cycle is likely to stretch longer than what we would typically expect” ...

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Feb 3, 2012

PROGNOSIS * South Africa

* 2012 to see car sales plummet, but heavy-truck boom possible


Houghton,Johannesburg,SA -Engineering News, by Irma Venter -2 February 2012: -- New vehicle sales in South Africa could end the year at around 495 000 units, said Econometrix director Tony Twine on Thursday...  This rather dismal figure would be a massive drop from the 572 400 units sold last year, with passenger cars expected to be responsible for around 50 000 units of the almost 80 000 unit decline in Twine’s 2012 forecast...  Unless the European economy implodes, it was likely that interest rates would rise rather than fall during 2012, with hikes likely in the second half of the year...  Lower interest rates normally stimulate vehicle buying...

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Dec 24, 2010

PROGNOSIS * USA - Driver shortage, small fleet survivability will vex all carriers in 2011

Nashville,TN,USA -Fleet Owner, by David Cullen -Dec 15, 2010: -- While large carriers are likely to find 2011 a challenging yet lucrative year, they should keep an eye out for their smaller brethren. That’s because an influential survey indicates that small fleets [under $25 million revenue] -- which provide a large chunk of capacity— are “vulnerable to a sluggish economy and increased fuel prices” unless they get rate relief “quickly and broadly.” In addition, the same study shows carriers of all sizes are very concerned about securing enough drivers and owner-operators... According to Transport Capital Partners, LLC (TCP), which handles transportation M&A as well as capital sourcing and offers advisory services, its latest Business Expectation Survey hasfound that “both drivers and independent contractors (IC) are on carriers' minds.” About three-fourths of the fleets responding to the survey use owner-operators... Of these fleets, 57% saw their IC counts remaining steady, about 29% are using various means to recruit and finance fleet additions, and the balance are seeing declining numbers. “Lease purchase plans by one in ten fleets are popular along with ICs who finance elsewhere or [using] a combination of methods to attract contractors,” said TCP partner Richard Mikes...

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OPTIMISM * USA - Truck sales will “gradually” pick up in ’11, ’12 and ‘13

San Antonio,TX,USA -Fleet Owner, by Sean Kilcarr -Dec 15, 2010: -- Sales of new trucks should pick up nicely over the next three years, according to W. M. “Rusty” Rush, president & CEO of Rush Enterprises, which owns one of the largest chains of truck dealerships in the U.S... Yet he cautioned that while motor carriers continue to experience a healthy uptick in freight volumes and rates, it will be slow going for those two critical metrics over the next several years. That means truck sales will be good, but will not necessarily return to the heady peak last seen in 2006... RTC operates 59 dealerships in 14 states and employs between 800 and 900 technicians. Rush Enterprises overall survived the downturn and stayed profitable. It generated $1.2 billion in revenues last year and sold 9,490 commercial trucks, yet remained focused on its goal of growing to $5 billion in revenue with a 20% average return on equity...

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Oct 29, 2010

TRUCK MARKET PROGNOSIS * USA & Canada

* USA - Class 8 truck demand to improve next year

Columbus,OH,USA -Truck News (CAN) -Oct 26, 2010: -- An annual fleet study conducted by CK Commercial Vehicle Research in the US indicates there will be strong demand for Class 8 trucks in 2011... The fleet survey shows a 47% increase in the number of fleets who plan new Class 8 and medium-duty power unit purchases in 2011 compared to those who planned to buy in 2010... The survey included 68 representatives from US fleets operating a total of 45,000 Class 8 and 12,000 medium-duty trucks... (Image from supposeudrive: Refrig Truck Fleet)


* Canada  - Is Ontario fleet optimism wavering?

Toronto,ONT,CAN -Truck News -29 Oct 2010: -- The majority of Ontario fleets responding to the Ontario Trucking Association's Q4 Business e-Pulse Survey are still optimistic, but some are less optimistic than they were just three months before...   The Q4 survey of 70 Ontario carriers shows 62% of respondents are optimistic about the trucking industry's prospects for the next three months, an 11% drop compared to the Q3 survey...   More than a quarter of respondents said they were "unsure" what the fourth quarter would bring. The OTA says optimism may have peaked in the last quarter for the time being as economic growth slows to a crawl...   Sixty per cent of fleets surveyed said their freight volumes have increased compared to a year ago with 21% reporting increases greater than 10%. However, a softening of freight growth has been noted in the second and third quarters...   Just 36% of fleets reported southbound US freight volumes had improved over the past three months, making the southbound market the "weak link" in terms of volumes, the OTA reported. Of the four markets examined (southbound, northbound US, intra-Ontario and interprovincial), southbound freight growth is the weakest. In fact, 21% of fleets reported southbound volumes had decreased over the past three month...   Fifty-four per cent of fleets said they will be hiring company drivers in the next three months, up 10% from the last quarter. Forty-two per cent said they will add owner/operators. Most fleets, however, will not be adding to their net fleet size. Just 44% of fleets indicated they would be adding tractors to their fleet... (Photo from irwinloy: Mail delivery trucks courtesy of the kind folks at Canada Post)

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Aug 16, 2010

PROGNOSIS * USA - Improved trucking margins point to higher equipment orders

Columbus,IND,USA -Truck News -Aug 13, 2010: -- Improving net margins for publicly-traded trucking companies point to further improvements in the Class 8 truck market, according to the latest report from ACT Research... In its North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook report, ACT projected full-year production of Class 8 trucks to be up 26% compared to 2009 and to accelerate into 2011... Production of commercial trailers is projected to increase 47% this year over last and to post strong growth in 2011. ACT also reported the medium-duty segment will continue to recovery slowly, because it's tied so closely to the housing sector... (Photo from wikipedia: Triaxle dump truck, Heavy duty Kenworth dump truck)

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Jan 13, 2010

TRUCKS' MARKETS PROGNOSIS * WORLDWIDE

* USA - ACT Research expects commercial vehicle demand to slow in first quarter

Columblus,IND,USA -Truck News (CAN) -12 Jan 2010: -- ACT Research is predicting that commercial vehicle orders will slow in the first quarter of 2010, as the more costly EPA2010-certified engines come on-stream... Net orders were up in late 2009 as companies rushed to secure pre-EPA2010 engines, but those build slots are now full, the forecaster reports in its latest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook... Still, ACT predicted heavy-duty vehicle production will be up 22% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2010 as OEMs fulfill orders for EPA07 engines. ACT said medium-duty production, which is linked to the housing market, will se a more steady and gradual increase in production through 2010 and 2011...


* China - Demand for heavy-duty truck, large bus to see faster growth than expected

Beijing,China -Xinhua News Agency -Jan. 13, 2010: -- Demand for heavy-duty trucks and mid- and large-sized buses in China will likely exceed previous expectations in the first quarter of 2010, according to a research report by an analyst with Shenyin Wanguo Securities... The sales growth of heavy-duty trucks is expected to reach about 75 percent in the first quarter, and the 2010 annual growth to hit 15 percent. This was mainly due to higher demand for delivery vehicles, as severe cold whether in China causes heavy highway and rail freight transportation, especially coal transportation... Rising transport prices, especially in December 2009 and January 2010, will also increase heavy-duty truck sales. Besides, dealers will purchase engineering vehicles in advance to prepare for the peak season of March. In addition, the dealers are expected to increase heavy-duty truck inventories upon higher expectations of demands amid general economic recovery... Based on such situation, industry analysts will adjust up the expectations they made previously for profitability in the first quarter of 2010 on major heavy-duty truck companies including Weichai Power, Beiqi Foton, and CNHTC Jinan Truck... (Photo from treehugger: China traffic)

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Nov 13, 2009

MARKETS WORLDWIDE * Europe - Businesses fear, recovery will remain timid

Villeneuve-la-Garenne,France -AP, by EMMA VANDORE -11 Nov 2009: -- From his upstairs office, Jerome Frantz can hear the delivery trucks as they rumble into the yard of the auto parts business his grandfather founded 90 years ago... In better times, each day Frantz would have as many as 60 big trucks pulling into the forecourt of Frantz Electrolyse just outside Paris, loaded with metal parts to be heat treated and coated in a protective covering... But demand for auto parts fluctuates with the fortunes of the auto industry including major customers such as Renault SA and PSA Peugeot Citroen SA — and then with little warning. The summer was weak, but September and October saw a slight pickup, with as many as 35 trucks rolling up each day... Now Frantz is counting only 25 on a good day... (AP Photo/Christophe Ena: Workers at the family run metal protection specialist Frantz Electrolyse in Villeneuve-La-Garenne, outside Paris, Monday, Nov. 9, 2009. When times were booming, as many as 60 large truck loads could pull into the forecourt at Villeneuve-La-Garenne. Now it's more like 25)


* USA - Survey: Transport CFOs Pessimistic on Recovery, Hiring. Only 22 percent expect to add to payroll in next six months

New York,NY,USA -The Journal of Commerce Online, by William B. Cassidy -Nov 12, 2009: -- Financial executives at transportation companies are more pessimistic about the economy than their counterparts in other businesses, and few plan to hire workers in the next six months, according to a survey by research firm Grant Thornton... Even fewer expect their headcounts to decrease in the next six months, reflecting sweeping cuts that have already been made at transporters from ocean shipping lines to trucking companies over the past year... Only 22 percent of the transportation executives interviewed by the research firm said they will increase hiring in the next six months, compared with 24 percent for all businesses included in the survey... More than half the transportation executives, 53 percent, said they expected economic conditions to be about the same in six months, compared with 41 percent of all respondents... A majority — 69 percent — expected pricing to be about the same as well, with only 25 percent of the executives at transportation companies expecting rates to climb, and they were slightly more optimistic than the CFOs overall who answered the survey... The economy will pull out of the recession in the second half of 2010, 41 percent of the transportation executives said, while 34 percent expect the recession to end in the first half of the year. Only 6 percent expected the recession to last into 2011 or longer...

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Apr 26, 2009

BUSINESS MARKET * USA -Recession to end in H2 but unemployment to rise


Washington,DC,USA -Reuters/Portfolio -Apr 10 2009: -- The U.S. economy is set to emerge from recession in the second half of this year as consumer spending and the housing sector recover, but unemployment will rise well into 2010, according to a survey... The Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of private economists released on Friday showed that 86 percent of respondents believed that the economic downturn would be declared to have ended in the second half... Much of the anticipated turnaround in the economy, now in its 16th month of recession, would be driven by some improvement in consumer spending, housing, business inventories and exports. Yet, above-trend growth was not expected until the second half of 2010... (Photo: March 15, 2009. REUTERS, by Max Whittaker - A campsite at a homeless tent city in Sacramento California)

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Nov 13, 2008

MARKET PROGNOSIS * USA - Freight outlook darkens

New York,NY,USA -Fleet Owner, by Sean Kilcarr -Nov 12, 2008: -- A variety of reports indicate freight recovery may be farther off than anticipated, with severe third quarter losses by General Motors and Ford Motor Co. adding to the gloom... According to a new survey of Russell 2000 index companies by Ernst & Young LLP, some 52% of polled CEOs expect no real economic upswing until 2010. Through September and mid-October, respondents cited the credit crunch (61%) and market volatility (54%) as having the largest effect on corporate growth, noted Maria Pinelli, Americas director-strategic growth markets for Ernst & Young... “For the fourth quarter, we expect freight demand to continue to decline,” said Randolph Marten, chairman & CEO of refrigerated carrier Marten Transport. “Due to economic conditions, we do not expect our customers in the consumer retail business to build or refresh their inventories. With those expectations in mind, our strategy is to continue to protect our truckload rate structure … to appropriately size our fleet to existing demand, to expand our logistics, intermodal, and regional operations and to aggressively control our costs and explore new business opportunities”...

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Nov 1, 2008

MARKET PROGNOSIS * WORLDWIDE

* USA - As economies sputter, truck sales stall

Chicago,ILL,USA -Reuters/The Guardian (UK), by James Kelleher -October 29 2008: -- The modest rebound in North American truck sales that commercial vehicle makers were hoping for in 2009 is looking increasingly unlikely as the U.S. economy slows even more as a result of the turmoil in financial markets... That's more bad news for the truckmakers, which suddenly finds itself confronting a downturn in markets that had -- until now -- been growing steadily and offsetting the softness here... Eli Lustgarten, an analyst at Longbow Research who covers the sector, to cut his 2009 earnings estimate for Cummins Inc by nearly 20 percent this week... He predicts heavy truck makers will produce about 195,000 next year, making it "the third year of sub-normal sales" and well below the 377,000 units sold in 2006, ahead of the last set if new emission regulations... The ominous signs come as Cummins and Oshkosh Corp, a specialty truck maker, prepare to report their latest quarterly earnings over the next few day.
If the recent results from Paccar, the Bellevue, Washington-based maker of Peterbilt, Kenworth and DAF brand trucks is any indication, they may not be pretty. A big drag on its results was much closer to home. Its in-house finance unit said that its pretax income tumbled 38 percent amid rising credit losses and truck repossessions in the United States and Canada...


* USA - Roemer Report: Transportation Experts Warn No Peak Expected This Year - Industry experts hope for freight demand recovery by mid-2009

Toledo,OH,USA -insurance news net -October 28, 2008: — The October edition of trucking insurance industry journal, The Roemer Report, cautions that lack of freight this holiday season could reduce potential earnings for motor carriers, many of whom rely on the autumn peak to make up for slower times during the rest of the year. This is normally the start of the busy holiday season, when Asian goods inundate West Coast ports and make their way inland to store shelves. Due to the sluggish housing market and falling dollar, last holiday season also experienced a slowdown. Much of this year’s slowdown is also blamed on the U.S. housing market, where home values have dropped and construction is down. Retailers are managing inventories tightly in order to have adequate merchandise on hand for consumers, without having too many products left after the holiday season. Some industry experts expect improvement by mid-2009...


* Germany - Daimler Trucks head sees flat market in 2010 -paper

Frankfurt,Germany -Reuters -Oct 31, 2008: -- The head of Daimler Trucks, the world's largest commercial vehicles maker, expects the market to remain flat in 2010 after what could very well be a decline of 15-25 percent come next year... "We will cut additional shifts and let go of temporary workers," Andreas Renschler told Euro am Sonntag in comments to be published in this coming Sunday's edition... Following the recent boom years where manufacturers could not keep up with rising demand, Daimler's trucks division has already eliminated a Saturday late shift in its largest assembly plant in Woerth, Germany. Daimler Trucks is a unit of Daimler AG...

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