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OPINION * USA - Economist: "Worst Economy in a Generation"
Los Angeles,CAL,USA -The Hellenic Shipping News (Piraeus,Hellas,Greece) -4 June 2009: -- Economic recovery will occur when consumer spending turns around, unemployment bottoms out and the business inventory-to-sales ratio improves, but that will take awhile, according to the chief economist of the American Trucking Associations. "This is the worst economy in a generation," Robert Costello told the Los Angeles Transportation Club on Tuesday... Trucking has been hit especially hard in this recession, with the number of truckloads down more than 20 percent year over year... Although motor carrier failures have not been as great as economists might anticipate given the depth of the recession, Costello said he is concerned that another spike in diesel prices could be too much for some trucking companies to bear... In past recessions, trucking was a leading indicator, preceding the official end of the economic downturn by as much as 10 months. This time, however, the business inventory-to-sales ratio is so bad that trucking will not lead the economy out of recession... Truck sales are likewise depressed, partly because trucks are not being driven as much. About 5 percent of the truck fleet is parked, which extends the life of those vehicles, and the trucks in service are not being driven as much because of the down economy... When the recovery picks up steam, cargo interests should anticipate that truck capacity will tighten considerably and the driver shortages of yesterday will return...
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