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Dec 11, 2008

TRUCKING INDUSTRY OPINIONS * USA - For U.S. transport sector, future looks ever bleaker

Chicago,ILL,USA -Reuters, by Nick Carey -Dec 10, 2008: -- For transportation companies, it was never meant to be like this... By now the U.S. transport sector -- especially trucking -- was supposed to be in recovery mode, benefiting from a positive change in U.S. economic fortunes that many inside and outside the sector had predicted for the second half of 2008... Instead, deepening economic problems have meant more suffering, despite a 70 percent drop in oil prices since July's highs of over $140 a barrel... Now it looks inevitable that things will get even worse before they get better -- even for major U.S. railroads, which have so far maintained solid profits on strong pricing power...



* Trucking Still Stalling

Chicago,ILL,USA -Zacks.com -10 Dec 2008: -- ... Yesterday, Con-way Inc. lowered its 2008 guidance. The company expects profits to total between $2.20 and $2.35 per share, down from its previous forecast of $2.60 to $2.80 per share. (The numbers exclude certain charges)... CNW justified the wide range by citing "turbulent market conditions" and a "lack of reliable visibility"... Throughout 2008, trucking companies have been struggling with a lack of pricing power. This has been particularly evident in the spot market for less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers, though full-truckload carriers have also struggled. Bluntly put, there have been too many trucks... Adding to the weak prices has been competition from rail for long-haul freight. Not only has this affected prices and volume for the long-haul segment, but it also sent more companies looking for LTL business... The trucking industry is also more susceptible to economic fluctuations than their rail counterparts. Trucking companies are more likely to ship retail items, whereas railroads move coal. As a result, the benefit of the 45% drop in diesel prices is being more than offset by the recession. (Less demand means fewer items being shipped)...


* Truckers Head Into a Ditch

New York,NY,USA -Barrons' by Randall Forsyth -December 10, 2008: -- There may be more to Tuesday’s big, 5.6% hit to the Dow Transports than the lowered guidance from FedEx and others. ISI, the perennially top-rated economics advisory headed up by Ed Hyman and Nancy Lazar, is telling clients its own survey of trucking companies has fallen into “uncharted territory” to the lowest in a decade. They admit their survey doesn’t go back to the 1990 recession let alone the 1981-82 deep downturn. But ISI says the steep plunge in its trucking survey would correlate with a 7.2% plunge in fourth-quarter gross domestic product...

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