AUTOMAKERS' CRISIS: Stimulus Package * USA - Obama team weighs up to $850 billion economic jolt
* Automakers: Not much more time - Chrysler, Ford idle factories; GM delays new plant
COMMENT * Automotive industry crisis - the implications for logistics suppliers
USA -Transport Intelligence (London,UK), by Thomas Cullen -15 Dec 2008: -- ... Beyond banking, few sectors have been hit as hard by the global financial/economic crash as the car industry. Such has been the size and the speed of decline in the sector that it has been difficult to keep pace with the fall in sales... So what will be the implications for automotive logistics suppliers? If there is actually going to be a significant level of consolidation then there will be significant repercussions for certain players. For example, Ryder has enormous business with GM in the US. A failure of GM would result in a huge portion of Ryder's contract logistics business disappearing. That is also true for Penske, a key supplier for Ford in North America. However, for many such companies the compensation will be more business with other customers. For example, Toyota is also a large automotive customer for Ryder − and Toyota will be a major beneficiary of any collapse amongst the US 'big three'... Such examples are seen elsewhere around the world. Few major logistics companies are dependent on just one vehicle manufacturer. Within Japan and Western Europe there are examples of logistics companies built around just one vehicle manufacturer, for example Gefco in France, but that is owned by PSA Peugeot Citroen... Oddly, the beneficiaries are easier to identify. Volkswagen Group is emerging as a winner out of the present turmoil and it does a lot of business with German logistics services providers such as DB Schenker and Schnellecke Group. Yet Volkswagen also has a strong policy of diversifying its logistics supplier base so any expansion, for example into the US, is likely to use other more local providers... One effect of more centralisation in the automotive sector might be a decline in the extent of logistics outsourcing. Toyota, for example, owns much of its own logistics infrastructure, including finished vehicle logistics services in the US and a shipping line... One word of caution, though. The automotive sector is a past master of relieving governments of their money. Manufacturers have enormous political influence, not least through trade unions such as the United Auto Workers in the US. In countries such as Germany, France, Italy and Japan, car production is seen as iconic, not just to the economy but to national identity. States such as Sweden, Spain and even China are likely to consider subsidies in order to avoid the effects of assembly plant closures in the regions concerned... Consolidation in the automotive sector is very likely. Just do not think it will be quick or straightforward...
Labels: automakers' crisis
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