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Nov 18, 2010

PROGNOSIS * China - In Global Forecast, China Looms Large as Energy User and Maker of Green Power

The report concluded: “The center of gravity of global energy demand growth now lies in the developing world, especially in China and India”

(Photo from Agence France-Presse / Getty Images - A traffic jam in Beijing. Over the last decade, the demand for energy in China has doubled)

New York,NY,USA -The New York Times, by CLIFFORD KRAUSS / Julia Werdigier / Elisabeth Rosenthal -November 9, 2010: -- China’s push for rapid economic development will dominate global energy markets and be the single biggest force in spurring higher oil prices and carbon emissions linked to climate change over the next quarter-century, the International Energy Agency reported on Tuesday... With China and its 1.3 billion people as a primary engine, the energy agency predicted that world energy demand should grow by more than a third over the next 25 years, as new oil supplies became harder to find... It also predicted that oil prices would rise to $113 a barrel in 2035, in current dollars, a rise of nearly $30... Beijing’s ability to lift hundreds of millions of people into the middle class over the coming years will be largely based on its ability to produce more energy, and its foreign policies can also be expected to follow its energy interests, energy experts say...   On Monday, the German automaker Volkswagen announced plans to build 10,000 electric cars in China starting in 2014. In addition, Nissan Motor, General Motors and Daimler are planning to build electric vehicles in China, which offers subsidies to buyers of such cars to cut oil consumption... The report offered many predictions about demand and supply of various fuels around the world, but it also concluded that there were many uncertainties. It wondered whether carbon capture and storage technology would ever become commercially available to clean increasing coal-fired electricity generation. It wondered whether biofuels production from crops like corn could be sustainable for food supplies...

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Feb 13, 2009

FUELS' PRICES PROGNOSIS * USA - DOE predicts diesel will average $2.28 per gallon in 2009

Washington,DC,USA -Land Line Magazine -11 Feb 2009: -- The Energy Department is forecasting some good news at the pumps for truckers, projecting diesel to average $2.28 per gallon in 2009... This is down more than $1.50 per gallon from fuel prices that truckers paid in 2008, when diesel averaged $3.79 per gallon... In 2010, the DOE is predicting fuel will cost $2.55 per gallon... Oil is predicted to average $43 per barrel in 2009. This is down at least $57 per barrel from the $100 average price in 2008. The EIA anticipates the per barrel price to rise to $55 per barrel in 2010... This past week, the national diesel average dropped to $2.219 per gallon, dropping a few pennies a week for four straight weeks... (Photo by Jamie Rector/Bloomberg News)

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Oct 7, 2008

PROGNOSIS * USA - DOE Lowers Forecast for Fuel Prices

Washington,DC,USA -Transport Topics -7 Oct 2008: -- The prices of oil, gasoline, heating oil and diesel all will average lower next year than earlier forecast, as global demand slows with the slowing world economy, the Energy Department said Tuesday... Diesel is projected to average $3.91 per gallon next year, down from a projected $4.01 average for 2008, reflecting a weakening of the wholesale distillate fuel price margins of this past summer, DOE said. Diesel and heating oil are both distillate fuels...

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Jun 2, 2008

FUEL COSTS PROGNOSIS * UK - Double, oil and trouble

The price of oil is beyond $130 a barrel. Where will it stop?

London,UK -The Economist -May 23, 2008: -- The price of oil may soon hit $200 a barrel—or so, at any rate, believes Shokri Ghanem, Libya’s oil minister. A few years ago such a prediction would have seemed absurd. But the price has doubled in the past year and has risen by 40% this year alone. It touched yet another record, of over $135 a barrel (before dipping slightly) on Thursday 22nd May. So more spectacular increases seem all too plausible... The immediate trigger for the latest jump seems to have been an unexpected fall in American oil inventories. But stocks, although falling, are not particularly low: in America, they are only slightly below the average of the past five years. Supplies of petrol and other refined fuels are actually a little above average. And since demand for oil and petrol are falling in America, lower stocks are not as much of a worry as they might normally be... Mr Ghanem’s explanation for this curious state of affairs is to blame speculators, who are investing ever more enthusiastically in oil futures. Many others share his view. Joe Lieberman, an American senator, points out that the value of investment funds that aim to track the price of oil and other raw materials has risen from $13 billion to $260 billion over the past five years. He blames these “index speculators”, for a big part of the commodity-price increases. He and his colleagues in the Senate are so worried that they are contemplating measures to curb the traders’ exuberance...Yet few bankers agree that speculation has much to do with price rises. For one thing, indexed funds do not actually buy any physical oil, since it is bulky and expensive to store. Instead they buy contracts for future delivery, a few months hence. When the delivery date approaches, they sell their contract to someone who actually needs the oil right away, and then invest the proceeds in more futures. So far from holding oil back from the market, they tend to be big sellers of oil for immediate delivery... In other words, the investors that Messrs Lieberman and Ghanem accuse of unfounded speculation may instead have concluded that the world will be short of oil for some time to come... Instead of hectoring speculators, perhaps Mr Lieberman should be hounding Mr Ghanem and the leaders of other oil-rich countries to allow foreign oil firms more access... (Image: AFP/Shutterstock)

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