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TRUCKING PROGNOSIS * Canada - Growing addiction to oil, increased urbanization and fully intelligent transportation systems seen
The Future of Trucking Symposium in Winnipeg
Winnipeg,MAN,CAN -Truck News, by Lou Smyrlis -Apr 12, 2010: -- Predicting the shape of the future is a considerably less than perfect science, littered with predictions so off the mark they are laughable... Nevertheless transportation companies do require a vision of the future and the various factors that could shape their business in order to strategize for future growth and protect against possible threats. And that is exactly what a panel of experts at the Future of Trucking Symposium in Winnipeg attempted to provide... Antonio Benecchi of Roland Berger Strategic Consultants, foresees environmental policy and regulation continuing to be a factor in shaping the transportation industry's future. "We expect to see more and stricter regulations. But the next focus will be on carbon reduction, through improved fuel efficiency. In the US we expect a standard by 2013 and enforcement by 2016. By 2030, most countries will have enforced strict CO2 standards"... If we carry on at our current pace, we can expect a 45% increase in global CO2 emissions until 2030, which would likely lead to a disastrous 5 degrees C global warming. Major reductions to CO2 emissions are required to keep global warming below the 2 degrees C rise most climate scientists believe is safe... Currently, transportation activity contributes approximately 37% to Canada's total energy-related GHG emissions inventory, according to government data cited by Rick Whittaker, vice-president investments with Sustainable Development Technology Canada. Roughly half of transportation emissions are attributed to freight transportation, and over half of those are attributed to trucking, so the industry carries a large bull's eye... The SDTC's 2030 vision for Canada's trucking industry includes the following goals: reduce energy intensity by 40% in Class 8 and 80% in Classes 6&7; reduce absolute energy consumption by 50% from projected levels by the year 2030; and reduce GHG emissions by a corresponding 50%... SDTC estimates that about $1.5 billion is needed to fully commercialize the new technologies in its portfolio of high assay projects... Benecchi foresees a distinct future for alternative power in commercial transportation. For example, the share of hybrid vehicles in sales of Class 4 and 5 vehicles is forecasted to grow from the current 1-2% to 15% by 2015 and 20-25% by 2020... Van Amburg from CALSTART said there is no simple, all-encompassing solution to the transportation industry's energy requirements... (Photo from japcarspics: Isuzu concepts trucks)
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